Search for: All records

Abstract Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high emission scenario, but spatiotemporal changes vary, reaching up to ±50%. As the dominant driver of these changes shifts from precipitation to temperature in the higher emission scenario, wetlands undergo substantial drying during summer season when biotic processes peak. The projected disruptions to wetland seasonality cycles imply further impacts on biodiversity in major wetland habitats of upper Mississippi, Southeast Canada, and the Everglades. Furthermore, wetlands are projected to significantly shrink in cold regions due to the increased infiltration as warmer temperature reduces soil ice. The large dependence of the projections on climate change scenarios underscores the importance of emission mitigation to sustaining wetland ecosystems in the future. 

Abstract Flooding is one of the most impactful weather‐related natural hazards. Numerical models that solve the two dimensional (2D) shallow water equations (SWE) represent the first‐principles approach to simulate all types of spatial flooding, such as pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flooding, and their compound dynamics. High spatial resolution (e.g., () m) is needed in 2D SWE simulations to capture flood dynamics accurately, resulting in formidable computational challenges. Thus, relatively coarser spatial resolutions are used for large‐scale simulations of flooding, which introduce uncertainties in the results. It is unclear how the uncertainty associated with the model resolution compares to the uncertainties in precipitation data sets and assumptions regarding boundary conditions when channelized flows interact with other water bodies. In this study, we compare these three sources of uncertainties in 2D SWE simulations for the 2017 Houston flooding event. Our results show that precipitation uncertainty and mesh resolution have more significant impacts on the simulated streamflow and inundation dynamics than the choice of the downstream boundary condition at the watershed outlet. We point out the viability to confine the uncertainty of coarsening mesh resolution by using the variable resolution mesh (VRM) which refines critical topographic features with far fewer grid cells. Specifically, in simulations with VRM, the simulated inundation depths over the refined region are comparable to that use the finest uniform mesh. This study contributes to understanding the challenges and pathways for applying 2D SWE models to improve the realism of flood simulations over large scales. 

Abstract In tropical forests, both vegetation characteristics and soil properties are important not only for controlling energy, water, and gas exchanges directly but also determining the competition among species, successional dynamics, forest structure and composition. However, the joint effects of the two factors have received limited attention in Earth system model development. Here we use a vegetation demographic model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM), ELM‐FATES, to explore how plant traits and soil properties affect tropical forest growth and composition concurrently. A large ensemble of simulations with perturbed vegetation and soil hydrological parameters is conducted at the Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The simulations are compared against observed carbon, energy, and water fluxes. We find that soil hydrological parameters, particularly the scaling exponent of the soil retention curve (B_sw), play crucial roles in controlling forest diversity, with higherB_swvalues (>7) favoring late successional species in competition, and lowerB_swvalues (1 ∼ 7) promoting the coexistence of early and late successional plants. Considering the additional impact of soil properties resolves a systematic bias of FATES in simulating sensible/latent heat partitioning with repercussion on water budget and plant coexistence. A greater fraction of deeper tree roots can help maintain the dry‐season soil moisture and plant gas exchange. As soil properties are as important as vegetation parameters in predicting tropical forest dynamics, more efforts are needed to improve parameterizations of soil functions and belowground processes and their interactions with aboveground vegetation dynamics.